And then there were 2 (or 4): Which Covid Vaccines Hold Most Promise?
(Thursday, November 19, 2020]​
This week with Moderna announcing a 95% effective vaccine and Pfizer updating its numbers from last week claiming that their vaccine too is similarly effective, we have two good candidates, both using the same mechanism of action. Previously Russia and China had announced that their adenovirus-based vaccines were also more than 90% effective. It seems 90% is the new magic number for working Covid vaccines. Both Pfizer and Moderna are planning to file their market approval and emergency authorizations with the FDA and EMA and promise the initiate vaccinations before the end of the year or early next year. Russia and China are seeking approvals in other countries assuring that those vaccines would be available in several countries, if not the US. With several vaccines going for market approvals simultaneously, among the several stakeholders, the regulators probably have the easiest job, namely, to look at the data and approve the vaccine(s). The FDA has promised to move fast with complete transparency on the data submitted to it and hold public advisory committee hearing before making a decision. Soon we would see troves of data submitted by both the leaders in the vaccine race to be reanalyzed by the public, in public. Any decisions made by the FDA would be strongly debated by the industry and consumers alike but soon multiple vaccines will be approved. The biggest question is how many people would want to be vaccinated by any of the vaccines. Since both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines follow the same mechanism of action, they should be equally acceptable to the consumers. Consumers in China and Russia may not have access to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in the near future just like the ones in the US will likely not see the Russian and Chinese vaccines. Since the current data indicates all 4 vaccines in the lead at the time have similar effectiveness, the populations will be similarly protected no matter which vaccine is used on different populations. The job of the governments and providers to choose which one and how much to purchase is a harder one. While both Pfizer and Moderna have pre-orders for their vaccines, so do several other vaccine developers who are a few months behind. The customers with pre-orders for other vaccines may not want to wait for them or switch their orders to Pfizer or Moderna, leading to some backlash. All four vaccines discussed here have their own pre-orders to fill that will keep them busy for the first few months but long-term market may be a very different story. Most likely, the vaccine market will be split multiple ways. There are the issues related to distribution of the vaccines, long-term protection, and safety that will probably arise after that. And it is hard to predict what happens to the hundreds of treatments being explored for Covid; how does one monetize a treatment for a disease that can be prevented more than 90% of the times. Either way, we are in for an interesting winter, and looks like spring will be better than last year.